Running the Numbers

The first few days of November have brought significant changes to the electoral collage numbers.  There are now nine states in the “toss up” category where there had been only seven last week.  And the margin heading toward Obama has slipped from 311 to 278 electoral collage votes.  Now one only needs 270 to win, and I don’t see any math that could get McCain the top job based on these numbers, but the win does not look as broad as it earlier appeared. 

The states now in question and leaning toward McCain include: Missouri, Indiana, Georgia, Montana, and Arizona.  All of these states went to Bush twice.  The toss up states now expected to go to Obama include Florida, Virginia, and Ohio.  All of these states went to Bush twice.  The one state considered a “tie” at the moment is North Carolina. 

Even if all the “toss up” states went to McCain it would bring him to a total of 260 electoral votes, and the total needed is 270.  I am really surprised that it is getting this close.

On the other hand, in my mail box this weekend were five fliers from different Republican interests.  And my husband and I use cell phones only so we’ve been missing the onslaught of phone calls.  However at work I get the messages for a local gentlemen who used to be mayor of our town.  And on his messages this morning were five calls from the McCain campaign.  Now usually I listen to them all the way through just to see which scare tactic they are using this time but not this morning.  Seems like mainly it’s the “Obama is out to get your money and give it to lazy Americans.”  Sad really, that a campaign would resort to class warfare.  Oh well, it is what it is.

Please vote.  No matter how long you have to stand in line, no matter how much propaganda you have to wade through, please, please vote.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5